Risk prediction of cardiovascular diseases in selected rural community of Nepal

Abstract

Background: Cardiovascular Diseases (CVDs) are the number one cause of morbidity and mortality globally and nationally. It is estimated that 17.3 million died globally due to cardiovascular diseases in 2008. In Nepal, estimated proportionate mortality attributable to CVDs is 22% in 2004 and 25% in 2008.Patients suffering from heart diseaseswere40% among all noncommunicable diseases in Nepal. Objectives: The main objective of the study is to estimate 10-year Cardiovascular Diseases risk among rural community of Nepal who have not yet developed clinically manifest cardiovascular diseases using World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH) risk prediction chart for SEAR D. Methods: A Cross sectional study conducted among 388 respondents age ranged from 40 to 80 years. The study conducted in Bhotewodar and Sunderbazar VDCs of Lamjung District. From 18 wards, four wards were selected using probability proportion to size method (PPS).Household was selected using systematic random sampling. Study subject from the selected household was decided using kiss table. WHO STEPS questionnaires tool was used for data collection. Data was analyzed by SPSS version 16.0. Results: The proportions of population who are at moderate risk were 9.3% and high risk were 4.3% for developing cardiovascular disease in next 10 years. More than 10% risk of cardiovascular disease was 13.6% using WHO/ISH chart alone. Risk was increased to 18% after including those having blood pressure of ≥160/100 mmHg. Moderate and high-risk population was significantly associated with age (p=0.001), level of education (p=0.01) and occupation (p=0.001). Prevalence of current smoker was 24.8%, obesity was 13%, hypertension was 40.5%, diabetes was 16.2%, and raised total cholesterol was 11.6%. Conclusion: One out of seven people of the total population with age 40 to 80 years was affected by >10 %( moderate and high) risk for development of cardiovascular diseases within next 10 years. Risk was higher among low educated, unemployed and homemaker. Immediate planning and implementation is needed to reduce risk factors of cardiovascular diseases.